The announcement of Donald Trump’s return to the White House completes a spectacular comeback and has sparked mixed reactions across Africa. For some, his second term could signal the continuation of an "America First" agenda—one that might reduce international aid, slow investment, and exacerbate global power imbalances. Others, however, view his stance on trade and global security as an opportunity for African nations to assert more autonomy on the world stage.
Despite Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric, his post-election statements, and initial key appointments, there remains significant uncertainty about what his second term will truly entail. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to mirror his first. The global landscape has shifted considerably over the past four years, with evolving geopolitical realities that may influence U.S. strategic priorities. Moreover, the significant margin by which he won the election gives him a stronger mandate, potentially empowering him to pursue more assertive policies both domestically and internationally.
While we can't predict the future with certainty, at Afrika Nunya we've attempted to explore the potential positive and negative implications of Trump's return for the African continent.
Pros and Cons …
Positives
Encouragement of African Autonomy: During his first term, Trump oversaw a retreat of the U.S. from its traditional role as a global arbiter, champion of democracy, and proponent of globalization. Trump’s tendency to avoid over-involvement in African governance and his disdain for long-term foreign aid may encourage African nations to pursue more self-sustaining economic and political policies, less reliant on external handouts.
Increased Private Sector Engagement: Trump's administration favored private sector-led initiatives over government-driven aid, and it has shown a preference for bilateral agreements when dealing with the continent. Under his first administration, the U.S. shifted focus to private sector-driven initiatives rather than traditional government aid. His administration launched the Prosper Africa Initiative, aiming to double trade and investment between the U.S. and Africa. Looking ahead, we can expect oriented efforts to boost U.S. private sector investment in key sectors like infrastructure, energy, and technology—offering Africa the chance to tap into American business expertise and capital for growth.
Reduced Military Intervention Abroad: Trump’s "America First" policy might lead to a more restrained U.S. military presence in overseas conflicts. For African nations, this shift could mean less direct U.S. involvement in regional security issues, prompting a greater reliance on African-led initiatives and multilateral partnerships.
Diplomacy: Republicans also pointed out the mishandling of America diplomacy in the Sahel region before and after the coup d’états in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. They have criticized Joe Biden for pushing forward so-called “cultural issues,” such as support for LGBTQ issues, rather than focusing on trade and business. One should therefore expect a more pragmatic approach from the Trump administration.
This could potentially allow African nations more room to define their security priorities and pursue diplomatic or regional military solutions without the pressure of external military engagement from the U.S., creating an opportunity for Africa to craft its own security architecture.
Negatives
Climate Change Neglect: Trump's skepticism about climate change and withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Accord could undermine global cooperation on climate change, which has significant consequences for Africa, especially in terms of droughts, floods, and agricultural disruptions.
Increased Geopolitical Tension: Trump’s confrontational stance towards countries like China and Russia could increase geopolitical tensions in Africa, forcing African nations to pick sides in global power struggles, potentially destabilizing the continent.
Immigration Policies: Trump’s hardline immigration policies, including travel bans and restrictions, could negatively impact African migrants and students seeking opportunities in the U.S., while limiting opportunities for African professionals to engage with American businesses and institutions.
Strategic Importance of Africa
Trump did not visit Africa in his first four years in the White House, and only two African presidents (Kenya and Nigeria) visited the White House during his time in office, the fewest of any of his predecessors. Despite this, and while Africa has been somewhat sidelined in the 2024 US election discourse, it is set to play a growing role in the coming years. With vast mineral resources, a youthful population, and a strategic position in the global economy, Africa will become increasingly crucial as the U.S. competes with China and Russia for influence on the continent.
How should Africa respond?
Strengthen Intra-Continental Cooperation and Self-Reliance: While engaging with the U.S. in areas like trade, counterterrorism, and infrastructure development remains valuable, African nations must prioritize building their own capabilities. By strengthening regional initiatives and deepening cooperation through organizations like the African Union and other regional bodies, African countries can increase their autonomy and resilience in addressing internal challenges.
Build Africa's Independent Foreign Policy: African countries can avoid becoming overly reliant on any single partner and better navigate the geopolitical competition between the U.S., China, and Russia. Africa’s future will be shaped by its ability to engage strategically with all global powers. While the figurehead in the White House may change, the broader forces driving global geopolitics will remain. It’s crucial for African nations to build a more independent foreign policy and recognize their growing role in the world stage.
Africa’s fate transcends any single leader, be it the US President
Having said all this, it is important to step back and recognize that global dynamics are not solely shaped by any single leader. The broader
picture involves complex geopolitical and economic trends that will continue to evolve, irrespective of one individual’s return to power. Also, there is little substantive difference between U.S. policy thinkers on either side of the aisle in Washington when it comes to Africa. While there may be occasional differences in rhetoric or priorities—such as the emphasis on human rights and democracy versus trade and investment—the overarching goals tend to remain the same.
Questions for Thought:
What are your thoughts?
What role should African nations play in global security amidst increasing tensions between superpowers?
In light of Trump’s return, how can Africa assert more control over its own security, avoiding the pitfalls of external military interventions?
Can Trump’s return to power lead to greater economic opportunities for Africa, or will it further complicate the geopolitical landscape?
What steps can we take to build stronger, more self-sufficient economies that do not rely on foreign intervention or goodwill?
How would the potential end of AGOA impact African economies? Can bilateral trade agreements effectively replace it?
What role can African countries play in reshaping global geopolitics, positioning themselves as autonomous actors rather than passive participants?
We’d love to hear your thoughts. How should Africa respond to these changing dynamics? Share your insights and let’s engage in this important conversation.
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